Round of 32: The World Cup Just Started Eating Itself

Three days in and the bracket already looks nothing like what anyone drew up in their head.

Morocco needed penalties to put away the Netherlands. Not the good kind of needed, the kind where Issa Diop has to rise up in the 91st minute just to drag you to extra time, after Cody Gakpo thought he’d won it for the Dutch.

Hakimi missed his. Two Dutch players missed theirs. It came down to Ismael Saibari, the next African champ, heading to Bayern Munich after the World Cup, stepping up and burying the one chance that actually mattered.

3-2 on penalties.

The Atlas Lions move on.

The Dutch go home before the Round of 16 for the first time in their history.

And if that wasn’t enough drama for one day, Paraguay happened to Germany.

Not “Paraguay beat Germany.” Paraguay happened to them. Four-time world champions, ranked 12th in the world, up against a team ranked 41st that had 25% possession the entire match and somehow Germany are the ones flying home. Julio Enciso’s header had them ahead at half time. Kai Havertz dragged Germany level. Then Jonathan Tah thought he’d won it with a header in the 105th minute, only for VAR to chalk it off for the faintest contact on the goalkeeper. The kind of decision that will be argued about in Munich for the next decade.

Penalties. Havertz misses. Woltemade misses. Tah, the same man whose goal got disallowed, skies his attempt over the bar in sudden death. Jose Canale slots his and Paraguay are through. Germany lose a shootout for the first time in their World Cup history. Let that sit for a second. The country that built its entire football identity on never losing penalties just lost one.

This is what the Round of 32 does. It doesn’t care about your badge or your history. It just wants to know who wants it more, right now, in front of however many thousand people are screaming at you.

Brazil nearly found that out the hard way too. Ancelotti’s side went into the break a goal down to Japan, looking every bit their oldest World Cup knockout XI since 2006. Then the eyebrow came out. Endrick on, Casemiro equalising with a header that looked like something out of his Old Trafford highlight reel, and Gabriel Martinelli, on as a substitute, mind you, (oh Arsenal fans are beaming about this) finishing it in the 95th minute. Brazil through, 2-1, looking exactly like a team that needed that scare more than they’ll ever admit.

Tonight, Africa goes again. Twice.

Ivory Coast face Norway first, and on paper this should not be close. Norway have Erling Haaland, who already has four goals at this World Cup and looks like a man who’s decided the Golden Boot has his name on it. Behind him, Ødegaard pulling strings, Antonio Nusa and Alexander Sørloth doing the running. The problem for Norway is the same problem everyone has against Ivory Coast right now, they’ve conceded just twice across three group games. Evan Ndicka and Odilon Kossounou have been a wall, and they’re going to need to be one again, because Haaland does not care about reputations.

The name everyone’s actually talking about, though, is Yan Diomande. Nineteen years old, RB Leipzig, the kind of pace and trickery that has half of Europe’s biggest clubs sniffing around already. He lines up directly across from his own club teammate Antonio Nusa, who Norway fans have started calling their Neymar. That matchup alone is worth the price of admission.

Add Nicolas Pépé, who already has a brace to his name this tournament and looks like he’s rediscovered every ounce of the form that made him a £72 million man, and Ivory Coast have more than enough quality to make this a genuine contest.

My prediction: Ivory Coast 1-0 Norway. Not because Haaland won’t get his chances, he will. But because this Ivorian defence has been at their best, and I think it holds, just, with Pépé or Diomande finding the moment that sends the Elephants into uncharted territory. First ever Round of 16 for Ivory Coast at a World Cup. Brazil waiting on the other side.

Then later tonight, Senegal walk out against Belgium in Seattle.

This is the game I keep coming back to. Senegal lost their first two group games. Were basically written off. Then they went and put five goals past Iraq, the biggest win by any African nation in World Cup history, in 94 years of this tournament existing, and snuck through as the eighth-best third-place team.

Ismaïla Sarr has been the standout, three goals and an assist, the kind of form that makes you forget Sadio Mané hasn’t even got off the mark yet. And he won’t need to. Not with Pape Gueye coming off the bench like he did against Iraq and scoring twice in twelve minutes.

Belgium, on the other hand, looked dead in the water after two draws before putting five past New Zealand to sneak top spot. Lukaku now has more World Cup goal involvements than any Belgian since 1966. De Bruyne is still the heartbeat of everything they do going forward. On paper, this is Belgium’s golden generation having one last dance, and they have more knockout pedigree than Senegal could dream of.

But here’s the thing about Senegal right now, they don’t look like a team that’s scared of anybody.

My prediction: Senegal 2-1 Belgium. I think Sarr finds a way through, Gueye adds a second off the bench again, and Belgium get one back through Lukaku to make it nervy, but it’s not enough. Senegal march on.

And honestly? The World Cup keeps giving like this every single day right now. France face Sweden. Spain take on Austria. Portugal and Croatia, Ronaldo and Modrić, two men in their forties refusing to let this be the last dance just yet. Argentina face Cape Verde, the smallest nation at this tournament against the team many still expect to lift it. A game a day, every day, each one with a story attached.

It genuinely feels like Christmas. Except every single present might eliminate someone’s childhood hero.

Buckle in.